High Probability for Supercells In Oklahoma At the End of March

Storm season kicked off in Oklahoma the first week of March with 13 tornadoes. Now meteorologists have their eyes on the last week of March that is showing high probability for supercells across Oklahoma.

Extreme Meteorologist Reed Timmer, who oversees storm chasers Team Dominator, posted to his official Facebook page on Thursday, March 20 a graphic of the latest CFS long range predictor of severe weather. The graph was generated by Dr. Victor Gensini and his team at Northern Illinois University and shows a "strong signal" for severe weather in the Southern Plains for the last week of March.

The graph reflects the Accumulated Supercell Composite Parameter (SPC), which factors three ingredients for supercell production: atmosphere instability, wind shear and helicity, which is the potential for updraft rotation. The parameter starts at zero and becomes higher as the ingredients overlap to favor supercell production. Zero suggests that supercells are unlikely to form, but a high value indicates that there is a better likelihood of supercells forming.

As shown in the graph, much of Oklahoma, particularly areas along and south of I-40, have the highest probability for supercells the last week of March. The red areas denote parameter levels at or over 30, which means these areas are the most likely to have all of the ingredients for supercells and the highest likelihood for them forming. Timmer expects this system to impact Oklahoma the last week in March before moving into Dixie Alley by early April.

Oklahoma saw 13 tornadoes on Tuesday, March 4.

Tornadoes can occur anytime of year in Oklahoma, but spring and early summer have all the ingredients to produce multiple and big tornadoes. Meteorological spring and storm season kicked off on March 1 and by March 4, Oklahoma had its first big bout with severe weather. The state saw 13 tornadoes on March 4. Most of the tornadoes impacted southeast Oklahoma causing damage to homes and businesses.

The National Weather Service in Norman recorded four EF0 tornadoes and nine EF1 tornadoes. Oklahoma broke the record for the most tornadoes on March 4, which was set at two in the 1970s. Oklahoma has already already received more tornadoes at the start of 2025 than it did in 2024, which was considered a historic year for tornadoes in the state at 148 tornadoes.

@weatherchannel An EF1 twister tore through Ada, Oklahoma, early Tuesday morning, damaging homes and displacing two dozen families. #TheWeatherChannel #fyp #weathertok #weatherchannel #forecast #tornadoes #stormchasing #severeweather #storms #tornadoseason ♬ original sound - The Weather Channel