Oklahoma’s Viral 120° July Forecast

If you've seen it already, you're dreading what's predicted to come next for Oklahoma in the next two weeks. Daily highs around 120°, heat indices even higher, but it's not a reason to panic.

Is July going to be hot? Yes.

Is the extended forecast predicting incredibly hot temperatures over 120°? Also yes.

But you have to keep this in mind... Even though short-term summer forecasts are generally pretty accurate, this one is sure to be wrong.

That's not a bold prediction I'm stating... It's science.

The graphics that are being shared at the moment stem from one certain weather prediction model that leans very heavily into heat potential for our part of the country.

The GFS American Model.

Even though it's the American model, it very rarely gets things right for America during this time of year.

It has something to do with estimated ground moisture, actual humidity, and fails to take rainfall into account... The gist is, Oklahoma is green enough at the moment to offer a lot of relief from the heat. Ironically, it's the humidity that keeps temperatures down... even though it's the humidity that makes it so hot.

I watched a couple of really dry, boring videos detailing the issues, but the gist of it was that this model almost always predicts insanely high air temperatures for this time of year.

In fact, the predictions this time of year are almost always highs in the 120° range for Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas. And while we've had some real scorchers over the years, I don't think we've even been close to that hot since 2014. At least in our neck of the SWOK woods.

Even then, the temperatures topped out around 115° during that incredibly hot summer. What made it possible then? It was dry. Extremely dry. I remember putting in a fence that summer, and even at a depth of four feet, the soil was still dry and sandy. The rains eventually came, and we've had some downright enjoyable summers since.

2020 Had Exactly 1 Day Over 100°

So, can you trust the weather people? Eh, as much as you ever have I suppose. They're not perfect people either. The forecasts are generally within the ballpark most of the time. There are some big whiffs on occasion too, but that's how predicting the future goes.

As the clickbait new record highs start hitting your newsfeeds, you'll know it's hokum.