When Will It Finally Get Cold In Oklahoma?

Like most things for humans, cold is subjective. While I'm about to linger on about the warm fall, my father has been complaining about the cold in Oklahoma for three weeks now. Hear me out.

Now the 12th of November, much of Southwest Oklahoma is beyond the "late" average first freeze dates in the almanac. In my personal zip code, the first freeze generally happens between October 28th and November 8th. Since overnight lows are trending lower into the 40s, we're probably not far off from that first freeze, but the forecast isn't showing it.

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Weather.gov is predicting a seasonally normal two weeks ahead for portions of the state. As the Oklahoma Panhandle has already had their first snow of the year, they're likely enjoying or hating the climate at the moment. Western and Southwest Oklahoma are predicted to have normal weather for this time of year, but the forecast doesn't agree with the National Weather Service.

While the weather site I trust is listing a few mid-30° mornings through the end of the month, and a straight 32° overnight low on the 30th, that doesn't mesh with the other outlook from the National Weather Service - who suggests things are going to warm up instead of cooling down.

Having spent many mornings in a deer blind wearing jeans and a hoodie versus dressing in a cold weather bib and big overcoat, a lingering warm fall isn't that weird for Oklahoma.

In those years, according to my Facebook Memories, the cold mornings don't usually arrive until Thanksgiving most years. All the same, we've fried turkey on Thanksgiving morning in shorts and tees in the last few years.

On average, the temperature this time of year in SWOK hovers between the upper 50's and lower 60's during the day, and overnights plunge into the 20's and 30's as Thanksgiving day rolls around... but that doesn't appear to be what 2024 has in store for us. In fact, a warm winter like we experienced last year is the current prediction.

Will it ever get cold?

That's subjective. While many of us are still running the air conditioners in our homes to keep things cool, there are some who are already burning the midnight oils to keep their houses warm.

My parents are two of those people, but to be fair, they live in Northern Oklahoma and their trailer isn't very well insulated.

I have a 94-year-old grandmother who lives in the traditionally hottest portion of Oklahoma. She's had her heater on since the heat broke in September, but we generally chalk that up to her not having air conditioning. She's old-school, Great Depression Oklahoma. When you're so used to sleeping in an 85° house, 75° feels pretty chilly.

When will Oklahoma get cold?

Here is what no meteorologist will tell you... Nobody really knows. They generally base new seasonal forecasts off of historical data, most notably last year's season - if you remember, Winter 2023 was supposed to be as brutally cold as 2022, but aside from two weeks below freezing, it was a very warm and mild shorts and hoodie season state-wide.

All the same, coming off a record start to November, with monsoon rains and tons of tornados, I'd wager that's why nobody is really staking a claim on what is to come just yet. Nothing in stone beyond the next few days at a time anyway.

It will eventually get cold, it always does, but I'd bet most of the state doesn't see a meaningful hard freeze until mid-to-late December this year. Emphasis on the late.