Calm May Forecast for Oklahoma After Months of Storms

This severe weather season has felt like it skipped the warmup and went straight to the main event.

We had tornadoes in January. Then again in February. March joined the party. And April basically decided weekends were reserved for storms. At some point it stopped feeling like “early season” and started feeling like the season just moved in early and unpacked its bags.

It's been bad enough, there’s a little weather anxiety floating around Oklahoma right now. Not because of what has happened, but because we all know what comes next.

May.

Historically, May is the heavyweight champion of Oklahoma severe weather. It’s the month everyone becomes a meteorologist, and while we always hope for the best and expect the worst, we might not have to this year.

The latest forecast feels almost weird to say out loud.

The National Weather Service is calling for a calm start to May. Granted, this was a week ago, and I didn't want to share this during our last massive severe weather outbreak.

Weather.gov/OUN

Not bone dry. Not boring. Just cool and calm.

Temperatures are expected to run cooler than normal, and we’re still looking at plenty of rain chances.

The big difference is what’s missing right now? There isn’t anything in the long-range weather pattern screaming severe weather. Well, for us anyway. It appears to be moving off to the east quite a bit, thanks to a big, slow-moving trough setting up over the Sooner State.

After the past five weekends of tornadoes in a row, we'll gladly take it.

This spring has been extra extreme. Cold fronts. Lots of them. They’ve been sweeping down the plains on a regular schedule, and that cooler air tends to bring explosive severe setups to us. Without the huge cold/dry/warm/moist swings, we get stability.

As long as the Arctic chills out just enough to stop the constant front parade, we could get a stretch of spring that feels a little more normal. Rainy days. Cool mornings. Maybe even a few quiet weekends where nobody is glued to their radar.

Of course, this is Oklahoma, and weather is written in pencil... Nobody can promise what the second half of May looks like yet. The pattern could shift. Summer heat could try to kick the door in early. Heck, maybe the heart of storm season will hold off until June, but right now, for the first half of May looks calm.

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