Will Oklahoma Have Another Weird Winter? NOAA Thinks It’s Possible

The long-range winter projections are fresh off the printers at the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, and things are looking up for Oklahoma.

Then again, last winter went way off script, and it stayed in a state of endless fall until this summer. Granted, there was one big cold snap that spewed ice and snow all across Oklahoma, but it was two or three weeks of cold for the entire season.

As nice as it was to be on the bass boat in shorts and tees on Christmas Day 2025, we're due for a normal winter season. Mostly brisk, warm afternoons, cold nights... our average. And the first NOAA projection seems to think it can go either way.

It's El Niño

The weather community has been talking about a 2026 Super El Niño for months now, and as it continues to develop out in the Pacific Ocean, we all wonder what that will mean for us here in Oklahoma.

Summer is unraveling like it always does in an El Niño year. Warm, wet, lush, and green for most of it. Incredibly hot to end the season.

If you've seen the extended forecast, there isn't a daily high smaller than three digits as far out as it shows.

So what does a Super El Niño mean for Oklahoma in terms of winter weather?

Mild and Wet

Throughout the almanac, El Niño years typically make for great weather across Oklahoma. Plenty of rain, mild but still chilly temperatures, and a bumper crop of wheat if the spring hail doesn't sweep through on these same systems of warm, moist air.

All the same, some of our heaviest snows have come in El Niño years too. With all of that extra warm, moist air, if the Arctic plunge is timed just right, it can mean more ice and snow for the Sooner State.

This is all academic at this point though.

It's Still Too Early To Tell

El Niño is generally more noticeable in the Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest. That's just how it all shakes out.

Our predicted seasonal temps are leaning towards remaining normal, with above-average precipitation - be that rain or snow or ice.

NOAA