Winter Forecast Clash: Wet vs. Dry Predictions for Oklahoma

If you’re the kind of person who plans winter around a book that was first printed when George Washington was still breathing, you’ve got a problem this year.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac just released its winter forecast, and it’s different from its competitor for your fantasy forecast, the other and just plain regular Farmer’s Almanac.

Farmer’s Almanac: Wet and Cold

If you remember, Farmer’s Almanac went all in a couple of weeks ago with “wet and cold” predictions for Oklahoma.

Old Farmer’s Almanac: Mild and Dry

The Old Farmer’s Almanac says we’re all in for a winter that’s mild and on the dry side. Not a lot of snow, not a lot of rain, and probably not a lot of sledding days either.

Two almanacs, two completely different predictions. Someone’s going to be wrong, or more likely, both of them will, which is usually how this plays out.

Here’s the funny part. Both of these publications love to tout their “long-range accuracy,” but if you actually dig into it, they’re about 40–50 percent right.

Accuracy: About a Coin Toss

That’s not exactly legendary foresight. In fact, it’s the same odds you get when you flip a coin. Heads: snowstorm. Tails: mild sunshine. But they keep putting out the forecasts, and we keep talking about them, so I guess it’s working.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac is the older of the two, having been around since 1792, which makes it the grumpy grandparent in this weather-guessing family. The Farmer’s Almanac (no “Old”) started in 1818 and tends to be the louder one at the reunion.

Both claim to use secret formulas involving sunspots, tides, and who knows what else. Some folks swear by them. Others roll their eyes and look up the local TV meteorologist instead, who generally also bats .500 when it comes to anything beyond an afternoon on the same day.

So what do we do with this? On one hand, we’ve got “bundle up and prepare for a sloppy mess” from one book. On the other hand, we’ve got “eh, don’t worry about it” from the other.

Which Forecast Should You Trust?

My advice: just go ahead and keep the coat and the umbrella handy. Maybe even keep the snow shovel in the garage where you can get to it. Worst case, you won’t need it, and that’s a win. Because if history has taught us anything, it’s that Oklahoma weather doesn’t read either almanac. It just does what it wants.